Seattle: Model Evaluation

The final city on this trip that we are considering as a future home is Seattle.

Seattle scores well on four out of five dimensions: accessibility (good hospitals and airport), quality of life (great university, great views, cultural diversity), climate (despite the rain in winter) and job opportunities. In fact, Seattle has the best job options we've seen.

The problem with Seattle is cost of living. Housing is still very expensive, even with the recent declines in prices. Overall, cost of living is 25% higher than Hudson. If you back out the housing differences, it is still more expensive. Taxes are a mixed bag: there is no state income tax, but sales tax is up to 9.9% - living here without a job would be very expensive.

Overall, the model looks like this:

Seatle WA (Decision)

• ●Seattle WA is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : Seattle WA has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Seattle WA has moderate winters.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Seattle WA has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Seattle WA has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.
• ●True
• ○OR [2 of 2] : Seattle WA has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ●AND [2 of 5] : Seattle WA has an affordable cost of living.
• ●AND [1 of 4] : Seattle WA has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 4] : Seattle WA has lower taxes than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 4] : Seattle WA has a lower cost of living index than Hudson OH.
• ●False
• ●AND [4 of 4] : Seattle WA has good housing for less than $750,000.
• ●False
• ●AND [3 of 5] : Seattle WA has good work opportunities.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Seattle WA has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Seattle WA has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 5] : Seattle WA provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Seattle WA can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Seattle WA has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Seattle WA has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Seattle WA has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●False
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Seattle WA can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 3] : Seattle WA has a high quality university.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 3] : Seattle WA has cultural diversity.
• ●True
• ●OR [3 of 3] : Seattle WA has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●True
• ●AND [5 of 5] : Seattle WA has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Seattle WA is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Seattle WA is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True

We have not ruled Seattle out, mostly based on the work opportunities, but we both agree that the city would mostly make sense if one of us had a job offer before we came. We've looked at real estate, and so far we have not found a house that we like that is within our budget.

Portland: Model Evaluation

It's time to get back to the real reason for this trip, and that is to find a new place to live (and to develop the software that helps people evaluate good places to live). We've seen lots of good scenery, but it's been a long time since we were in a truly viable location for us. Now we have one to consider - Portland.

The model for Portland has some missing data. First let's start with what we know: accessibility is great -- good airport, good hospitals; quality of life is great -- walkable neighborhoods, affordable housing, great views and scenery; climate is good -- mild winters, nice summers, and only 1% less sunshine than Hudson, despite the rumors to the contrary. Work opportunities is a mixed picture: high unemployment and not many fulltime work opportunities, but a great Microsoft network here and good freelance opportunities, so that works for us. The unresolved issue is affordability.

We've looked at housing and we know that now, with the reduction in prices taking place, that we can afford a nice place to live within our budget. The published COL numbers say Portland is 2% higher than Hudson, but that is largely driven by the (old) housing prices. Back those out, and it is no more expensive than Hudson. There is no sales tax here, and property taxes, while high, are not as high as Hudson (which is unfortunately almost in a class by itself - 2% of appraised value). The unknown is availability and cost of health insurance. Oregon is a complicated state on health insurance and you can't get quotes over the internet. I have calls out to people to get some answers, but they've all gone for Memorial Day weekend, I guess.

So, the current model looks like this:

Portland OR (Decision)

• ○This town is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : This town has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town has moderate winters.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : This town has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : This town has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.
• ●True
• ○OR [2 of 2] : This town has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ○AND [2 of 5] : This town has an affordable cost of living.
• ○AND [1 of 4] : This town has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●AND [2 of 4] : This town has lower taxes than my current home town.
• ●True
• ○AND [3 of 4] : This town has a lower cost of living index than my current home town.
• ○Undecided
• ●AND [4 of 4] : This town has good housing for less than my maximum house budget.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 5] : This town has good work opportunities.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : This town has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 2] : This town has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 5] : This town provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : This town has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 2] : This town has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : This town can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ○OR [1 of 3] : This town has a high quality university.
• ●OR [2 of 3] : This town has cultural diversity.
• ●True
• ●OR [3 of 3] : This town has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●True
• ●AND [5 of 5] : This town has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : This town is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True

Hopefully, I will learn that health insurance is available and affordable. If so, Portland will be our strongest candidate so far.

Carmel CA: Model Evaluation

Finally, here in Carmel, the limitations of our current decision model become clear. The current approach, which uses only 'black and white' assessments (or green and red), does not give us enough flexibility to address a complex decision like the one we are facing. It works fine for Legal Apprentice, where ultimately a defendant must be found guilty or not guilty, but not for the tradeoffs of picking a new home.

My brother Vern had suggested to me earlier that I could build this model using the 7 point scales we use for assertions in Legal Apprentice, and that would indeed have given us more variability than the current model. The problem with this is that eventually the 7 point scales get rolled up into a yes/no, black/white, red/green decision. What we really need for this exercise is a scoring algorithm that rolls up into a 'so many points out of 100' type of conclusion. The Carmel example makes this very clear.

Here is what the current model looks like for Carmel:

Carmel By The Sea (Decision)

• ●Carmel is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : Carmel has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Carmel has moderate winters.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Carmel has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Carmel has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.
• ●True
• ○OR [2 of 2] : Carmel has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ●AND [2 of 5] : Carmel has an affordable cost of living.
• ●AND [1 of 4] : Carmel has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●True
• ○AND [2 of 4] : Carmel has lower taxes than Hudson OH.
• ●AND [3 of 4] : Carmel has a lower cost of living index than Hudson OH.
• ●False
• ●AND [4 of 4] : Carmel has good housing for less than $800,000.
• ●False
• ○AND [3 of 5] : Carmel has good work opportunities.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Carmel has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●False
• ○OR [2 of 2] : Carmel has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●AND [4 of 5] : Carmel provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Carmel can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Carmel has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Carmel has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●True
• ○OR [2 of 2] : Carmel has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Carmel can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ○OR [1 of 3] : Carmel has a high quality university.
• ○OR [2 of 3] : Carmel has cultural diversity.
• ●OR [3 of 3] : Carmel has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●True
• ●AND [5 of 5] : Carmel has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Carmel is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Carmel is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True

It says that Carmel does not pass our test, yet we have looked at a couple of houses here and are seriously considering making an offer on one. Why? Because every town is a set of tradeoffs, and sometimes outstanding strengths on one criterion outweigh the drawbacks on another. A scoring model could account for this.

Example: Carmel obviously does not pass the current test for affordable cost of living, but it scores so highly on quality of life, we are willing to consider that tradeoff. If we allowed scores for each of the subcomponents of the model, when we added them together or created a weighted average, or whatever the rollup scoring method is, it would be possible for Carmel to outscore locations like Austin and Dallas, which 'passed' the decision test. We need to enhance the model to allow this level of sophistication, and we are brainstorming now ways of doing this.

Austin TX: Model Evaluation

Austin passes our test, and passes it more convincingly than Dallas. Whereas I had to bend the rules a little to pass Dallas on cost of living, Austin is genuinely 4.5% lower than Cleveland OH - 9% lower than Dallas.

Though Austin is smaller than Dallas, it is a better city for technology, and therefore a better city for us. Indeed, Austin was picked as the #1 tech city by insidetech.com; Dallas was #9.

Austin also wins on quality of life: it is the Live Music Capital of the World (or so they claim), and seeing how we are here with our musical instruments, you can guess that this is important to us. It also has beautiful scenery -- the hill country, with its 6 lakes, surpasses any scenery available in Dallas.

The complete Austin model looks like this:

Austin TX (Decision)

• ●Austin TX is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : Austin TX has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Austin TX has moderate winters.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Austin TX has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : Austin TX has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Austin TX has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 5] : Austin TX has an affordable cost of living.
• ●AND [1 of 4] : Austin TX has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 4] : Austin TX has lower taxes than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 4] : Austin TX has a lower cost of living index than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 4] : Austin TX has good housing for less than $800,000.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 5] : Austin TX has good work opportunities.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : Austin TX has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Austin TX has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 5] : Austin TX provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Austin TX can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Austin TX has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Austin TX has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Austin TX has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Austin TX can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 3] : Austin TX has a high quality university.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 3] : Austin TX has cultural diversity.
• ●True
• ●OR [3 of 3] : Austin TX has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●True
• ●AND [5 of 5] : Austin TX has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Austin TX is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Austin TX is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True

Dallas: Model Evaluation

Dallas is the first location to actually pass our model's criteria, though it is a close call on our cost of living requirement. According to the site I've been using for the cost of living numbers (http://swz.salary.com/CostOfLivingWizard/layouthtmls/coll_metrodetail_93.html), Dallas is 4% more expensive than Cleveland. But we live in Hudson, which is more expensive than Cleveland but is not available for the cost of living comparison. I also know from other parts of the model that housing is less expensive, as are taxes. Based on this, I said Dallas passed the requirement, but ultimately I may need to redesign the model. Given Ohio has a relatively low cost of living, it may be unrealistic to expect our new home to be even lower - perhaps being within 5% is good enough.

The whole Dallas model looks like this:

Dallas (Decision)

• ●This town is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : This town has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town has moderate winters.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : This town has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : This town has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : This town has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 5] : This town has an affordable cost of living.
• ●AND [1 of 4] : This town has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 4] : This town has lower taxes than my current home town.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 4] : This town has a lower cost of living index than my current home town.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 4] : This town has good housing for less than my maximum house budget.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 5] : This town has good work opportunities.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : This town has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : This town has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 5] : This town provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : This town has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ●True
• ○AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : This town has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : This town can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 3] : This town has a high quality university.
• ●True
• ○OR [2 of 3] : This town has cultural diversity.
• ●OR [3 of 3] : This town has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●False
• ●AND [5 of 5] : This town has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : This town is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : This town is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True

Memphis Tennessee - Model Evaluation

Our planned second stop, Memphis, also does not pass our current decision model. Unlike Lexington, it passes the climate test, but it fails on availability of work opportunities (as does Lexington) and quality of life.

Lack of work opportunities is driven by the being relatively small and by a lack of technology companies. Quality of life issues are led by a complete lack of 'walkable' neighborhoods and a crime rate three times the national average. The complete tree looks like this:

• ●Memphis is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : Memphis has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Memphis has moderate winters.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• Memphis Climate Comparison.jpg (Pictures)
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Memphis has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ○OR [1 of 2] : Memphis has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Memphis has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 5] : Memphis has an affordable cost of living.
• ●AND [1 of 4] : Memphis has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 4] : Memphis has lower taxes than Hudson, OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 4] : Memphis has a lower cost of living index than Hudson, OH.
• ●True
• Memphis COL Comparison.jpg (Pictures)
• ●AND [4 of 4] : Memphis has good housing for less than $800,000.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 5] : Memphis has good work opportunities.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Memphis has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Memphis has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●False
• ●AND [4 of 5] : Memphis provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Memphis can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Memphis has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●False
• ○AND [1 of 2] : Memphis has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ○AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Memphis has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●True
• 1020-Reid-Hooke.pdf (Documents)
• 17430 hwy 196.pdf (Documents)
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Memphis can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ●False
• ●OR [1 of 3] : Memphis has a high quality university.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 3] : Memphis has cultural diversity.
• ●False
• ●OR [3 of 3] : Memphis has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●False
• ●AND [5 of 5] : Memphis has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Memphis is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• Memphis_International_Airport.pdf (Documents)
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Memphis is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True
• Memphis Hospitals.jpg (Pictures)

Once again, you can't see the supporting documentation in this html blog post. Hopefully, we can have this available in the Silverlight version we are currently developing.

Based on the disappointing evaluation of Memphis, we are considering rerouting to Oxford, Mississippi, which at least has a major university (which Memphis does not).

We have also discovered that our stop in Lexington coincides with the Kentucky Derby, which explains why we are having a hard time finding a decent hotel room! This, too, is making us reconsider our timing and planned route.

Lexington Kentucky - Model Evaluation

Our first stop on the walkabout will be Lexington. Our current plans have us staying only one night, and based on the results of my Decision Apprentice evaluation model, that is the right amount of time. Lexington fails to meet our criteria, and we only plan on spending several days in locations with high potential as a future home (or a family member to visit).

Based on my Internet research, Lexington fails to meet two of our five high level requirements: the climate is not mild enough (the winters are too cold) and there are not enough job opportunities for us. The full tree looks like this:

Lexington KY

• ●Lexington KY is a good choice for our next home.
• ●AND [1 of 5] : Lexington KY has a good climate.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Lexington KY has moderate winters.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.
• ●False
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Lexington KY has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Lexington KY has moderate summers but not a lot of sunshine.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Lexington KY has lots of sunshine but hot summers.
• ●False
• ●AND [2 of 5] : Lexington KY has an affordable cost of living.
• ●AND [1 of 4] : Lexington KY has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 4] : Lexington KY has lower taxes than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [3 of 4] : Lexington KY has a lower cost of living index than Hudson OH.
• ●True
• ●AND [4 of 4] : Lexington KY has good housing for less than $800,000.
• ●True
• 1671-Red-House-.pdf (Documents)
• 181-Water-Works.pdf (Documents)
• 252-North-Broad.pdf (Documents)
• 302-High-Street.pdf (Documents)
• 635-Jones-Lane-.pdf (Documents)
• ●AND [3 of 5] : Lexington KY has good work opportunities.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Lexington KY has good fulltime work opportunities.
• ●False
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Lexington KY has good freelance work opportunities.
• ●False
• ●AND [4 of 5] : Lexington KY provides a good quality of life.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Lexington KY can provide a healthy lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 2] : Lexington KY has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Lexington KY has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.
• ●True
• ●OR [2 of 2] : Lexington KY has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Lexington KY can provide an inspirational lifestyle.
• ●OR [1 of 3] : Lexington KY has a high quality university.
• ●True
• uk_Map.jpg (Pictures)
• university of kentucky.jpg (Pictures)
• ●OR [2 of 3] : Lexington KY has cultural diversity.
• ●False
• ●OR [3 of 3] : Lexington KY has beautiful scenery and views.
• ●False
• ●AND [5 of 5] : Lexington KY has good accessibility.
• ●AND [1 of 2] : Lexington KY is within 2 hours of a major airport.
• ●True
• ●AND [2 of 2] : Lexington KY is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.
• ●True
• hospitals.jpg (Pictures)

Unfortunately, in this blog post you are unable to view either the notes or the attachments that explain the red/false and green/true assessments I've made on each point. In the actual application, all of this is saved and readily available as documentation for each item in the model.

Lexington has a lot going for it - it is affordable, it has a good university (University of Kentucky), and it has some great walkable neighborhoods with nice housing. Unfortunately, it is a little too cold and a little too small to find work. If we find, as we travel, that no location passes our 'test' and revisions/compromises are necessary, Lexington may merit a second look.

Of couse, a lot also depends on how we feel about a place once we actually see it; as wonderful as the Internet is, there is no substitute for real life exploration. That is why a walkabout is necessary! We will visit, take pictures, and we will be more efficient at this because of the research we've done in advance. I now know the walkable neighborhoods we would like to explore, and given we plan on spending only one night, efficiency is essential.

Our Town Evaluation Model

During our trip, we will be applying a tool we are developing called 'Decision Apprentice'. Currently, this tool is available as software that can be installed and used on any Windows PC. We are developing a Silverlight version that will be available as a web service, but this will not be released until Silverlight 3 is available, probably this fall.

In the meantime, I will assess each town we visit using the version of the tool installed on my laptop. I will post the results of each assessment on the web, with links here.

First, a little information on the decision model we've built. I will cut and paste the basic template here, though it is much more difficult to see what is going on in this html version -- it is easier to understand the different levels of the tree when you can expand and collapse each section as you go. Unfortunately, I haven't figured out yet how to get this functionality into my blog entry...

There are five high level branches of the decision: climate, cost of living, work opportunities, quality of life and accessibility. Here is the total model, and I will explain the five branches further after the tree:

• ○This town is a good choice for our next home.




• ○AND [1 of 5] : This town has a good climate.




• ○AND [1 of 2] : This town has moderate winters.




• ○OR [1 of 2] : The number of days each year at or below freezing should be 10 or less.


• ○OR [2 of 2] : The average winter temperature should be at least 10 degrees warmer than Hudson OH.


• ○AND [2 of 2] : This town has a good balance of sunshine and summer heat.




• ○OR [1 of 2] : This town has moderate summers in exchange for lots of sunshine.


• ○OR [2 of 2] : This town has lots of sunshine but hot summers.


• ○AND [2 of 5] : This town has an affordable cost of living.




• ○AND [1 of 4] : This town has health insurance available for less than $1500 a month.


• ○AND [2 of 4] : This town has lower taxes than my current home town.


• ○AND [3 of 4] : This town has a lower cost of living index than my current home town.


• ○AND [4 of 4] : This town has good housing for less than my maximum house budget.


• ○AND [3 of 5] : This town has good work opportunities.




• ○OR [1 of 2] : This town has good fulltime work opportunities.


• ○OR [2 of 2] : This town has good freelance work opportunities.


• ○AND [4 of 5] : This town provides a good quality of life.




• ○AND [1 of 2] : This town can provide a healthy lifestyle.




• ○OR [1 of 2] : This town has neighborhoods that provide a walkable urban lifestyle.




• ○AND [1 of 2] : This town has at least one neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90.


• ○AND [2 of 2] : The neighborhood with a walkscore greater than 90 has a crime rate no greater than 125% of the national average.


• ○OR [2 of 2] : This town has areas with affordable nature 'compounds'.


• ○AND [2 of 2] : This town can provide an inspirational lifestyle.




• ○OR [1 of 3] : This town has a high quality university.


• ○OR [2 of 3] : This town has cultural diversity.


• ○OR [3 of 3] : This town has beautiful scenery and views.


• ○AND [5 of 5] : This town has good accessibility.




• ○AND [1 of 2] : This town is within 2 hours of a major airport.


• ○AND [2 of 2] : This town is within 30 minutes of high quality hospitals.

When this tree is filled out for an actual town, certain parts of the text will be replaced with specifics (such as 'Memphis'), and the green and red icons will indicate if the branch is true or false. The actual application looks like this:

I collect information on the internet, and copy notes, pdfs and pictures into the appropriate item in the tree. I set the values of the lowest level items to true or false, based on what I learn, but the application 'reasons up' the tree, setting higher level items to true or false based on rules of logic.

In my model, all five high level decisions must be true for the top item - this town is a good choice for our new home - to be true. Our own preferences are built into each of the five branches, to establish what is a 'good' climate, quality of life, etc. It was quick and easy to build this tree, and now I can apply the model consistently to each place we visit. I have bookmarked a number of sites that have the information I need to evaluate each item in the tree.

So far I have evaluated Lexington and Memphis, our first two stops, and sad to say - neither one of them pass the test. I will post these two applications of the model in my next blog entries, and talk about why each fails. Will any place we visit pass? Or is the decision model too tough? Will we need to compromise, and if so, on which items? That is part of what our walkabout is meant to show us.